Does the NFL's double digit ratings decline for opener show fan fatigue?

The New England Patriots-Seattle Seahawks matchup last week was the NFL’s lowest-rated opening-night game since 2022, averaging 25.1 million viewers on NBC and Peacock.

That figure represents a 12% decline from last season’s Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles opener, which drew 28.3 million viewers on the same network.

Considering recent changes to Nielsen’s measurement system, the broader multiyear decline and the double-digit year-over-year drop are notable.

The NFL and NBC will likely attribute the decline, at least in part, to the opener airing on a Wednesday for the first time. Moving the game from Thursday, traditionally a stronger night for viewership, to Wednesday was likely a factor — perhaps a significant one.

But that is more a consequence than an excuse.

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To understand why the NFL opened the season on a Wednesday, consider the league’s broader strategy.

The NFL views streaming and international games as its two biggest avenues for growth. But the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 prohibits televised NFL games on most Friday nights during the high school and college football seasons. As a result, the league could not schedule the Los Angeles Rams-San Francisco 49ers game in Australia on Friday, as it had the previous two seasons. Instead, the game was played on Thursday, pushing the Patriots-Seahawks opener on NBC to Wednesday.

The NFL will also play another Wednesday game on Netflix on the night before Thanksgiving. There will be four Friday games this season, including one on Black Friday and three on Christmas Day. Nine games will be played internationally.

On one hand, the expanded schedule means more football on television. On the other, it could lead to lower-quality football.

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Fans saw last season how the additional windows, unusual days of the week, extensive travel, and limited rest hindered the quality of play. Teams playing on short rest, sometimes overseas, frequently looked sloppy and unprepared.

The changes also diminished the games’ sense of occasion. The Sunday slate, in particular, has become increasingly diluted by the addition of newly created national windows.

It should come as no surprise that fewer people watched last Wednesday’s opener than in previous years. Patriots-Seahawks was a sluggish snoozefest through three quarters. Working Americans faced two additional days of early wake-up calls that week. Another primetime game (Rams-49ers) followed the next night.

There is no reason to overstate the significance of the ratings decline. The game still averaged more than 25 million viewers. That is more than any NBA Finals game drew in June. The NFL is the most popular form of entertainment in the country.

Still, signs of fan fatigue and frustration are growing.

We have not even discussed how expensive it is to follow the NFL across its various television networks and streaming services this season. And it is expensive.

There is a reason the television networks did not cave and negotiate new rights deals with the league early, as some media analysts predicted.

Put plainly, there is more resistance to the NFL’s insatiable appetite for growth than the league may realize.

OutKick explained over the summer that raising the price of an inferior product is traditionally a poor strategy. The NFL appears to believe that standard does not apply to it.

Based on recent viewership trends, the league is slightly overconfident.